3X Capital
Market Context

Price action.
Sector context.
No noise.

There's a difference between watching prices move and reading what they're saying. That distinction took years to be fully appreciated.

A public market journal — written when something is worth saying. What appears here is what I actually use: price action, sector leadership, macro context, narrative, and the behavioural reading of markets under pressure.

What guides this is something harder to formalise: sustained attention to how markets behave — how they absorb news, how they move when they shouldn't, how they refuse to move when everyone expects them to. That, over time, builds a feel — quieter, sharper, earned through repetition.

How decisions are made

Markets rarely reward constant action. Most decisions come from patience, context, and waiting for moments where you have more conviction about what price behaviour is telling you. Sometimes it whispers — but sometimes it screams. Once the subconscious dashboard starts to light up, all you need is the nerve to act. You will always need the nerve.

Reading the tape
Price behaviour reveals more than headlines. The way markets react — or refuse to react — often says more than the event itself. Over time, I've forced myself to focus more on price action than on price level.
Context
Context shapes conviction. Sector leadership, macro conditions, and thematic flows help distinguish temporary noise from structural change. Making sense of this puzzle creates a feeling that is hard to describe — and that is precisely what keeps me engaged.
Trained intuition
Hundreds of hours following cycles, euphorias, panics, and regime shifts — observing how specific assets behave under specific conditions. It is difficult to measure how much that daily exposure improves decision-making, but over time I have come to believe that sustained observation trains perception — and eventually polishes intuition.
Emotional mileage
Markets teach you things about yourself that few other environments can. The deep lows, the fast gains, the emotional swings — over time they leave scars, but also perspective. You learn to stay rational when positions move hard against you, and to remain grounded when everything suddenly works. Earned — from my observation deck.
Price Action Sector Leadership Macro Context Narrative Behavioural Reading Thematic Flows
About

The person behind
the observations.

Macro & Thematic Investor · Since 2020
What keeps pulling me deeper into markets is not only the opportunity, but the complexity itself: the different trends that you ride, the traps, the emotional swings, the deep lows, the moments where everything changes in a single session — and the constant challenge of learning to navigate all of it with more clarity, discipline, and humility.

Since 2020, I've been developing a macro-driven approach focused on market behaviour, sector leadership, liquidity cycles, and the relationship between narrative and price action. What matters to me is rarely the headline itself, but how markets absorb it — or refuse to.

The 3X in the name comes from the instruments themselves. Three-times leveraged ETFs gradually became my own asset class — volatile, demanding, emotionally unforgiving at times. They are not instruments for everyone. Liquidity, risk management, and emotional control matter enormously. Over time, however, I realised this was the arena that matched my risk profile. They remain diversified baskets at their core, but with a velocity that demands both hands on the wheel — exactly the way I like it.

Over time, the focus shifted away from constant action and toward sustained observation. A significant part of that evolution came through screen time — including an intense period of day trading that eventually reshaped the way I look at markets. I became less interested in reacting to every move and more interested in staying close to the tape itself: watching how behaviour develops from the open to the close, day after day. Most of the work happens before action is taken.

Markets also teach you things about yourself that few other environments can. The deep lows, the fast gains, the emotional swings — over time they leave scars, but also perspective. You learn to stay rational when positions move hard against you, and to remain grounded when everything suddenly works.

I'm Tiago, based between Vancouver and Lisboa.

This writing is, honestly, also for me — a way to ventilate what I observe, let it settle, and become more precise about what I actually saw versus what I thought I saw.

Nothing here is financial advice. These are personal observations, written to think clearly — not to instruct.
Annual Laps

One year at a time.

Not a track record. Not a highlights reel. Just what each year was — what it taught, what it cost, what it clarified.

2020
From interest to conviction
Markets had been on the radar since 2017 — modest positions, slower instruments, learning the language. But 2020 was the year everything changed: larger exposure, first leveraged ETFs, real skin in the game. And the most volatile market in a generation to test it all against. The COVID crash and the fastest recovery in history didn't start the interest. They turned it into something deliberate.
2021
First real stakes
A strong year with a clear theme — US oil & gas, through a single 3x leveraged ETF, in and out several times. The first time the positions had real weight and the decisions started to feel like decisions. Everything was still going up, which made it hard to separate skill from luck. But something shifted: the reading became more deliberate, the moves more considered, the results more meaningful. Not yet a process. But no longer just watching.
2021
First consistency
First year of clearer readings and more consistent results. Everything went up — which made it easy to confuse luck with skill. Started paying attention to what was actually driving moves beneath the surface, not just the direction.
2022
Reality check
Difficult market, inevitable drawdowns — and one position that tested everything. A leveraged bet on tech, Mag7-style, right into the rate hiking cycle. Monetary policy tightened faster than most expected and narratives that had seemed unshakeable collapsed one by one. Watching paper losses mount, deep enough to reach the part of the ocean where the fish glow in the dark. Hard to breathe. But held. The most instructive year by far — learned more from what went wrong than from everything before it combined.
2023
Finding the rhythm
The year the process started to click. Fewer trades, more deliberate — re-entering tech at lower prices after 2022, adding US small caps and US banking to the mix. The reading became more patient, the sizing more intentional. Less reactive, more selective. Another positive year — and the one where something quietly settled.
2024
Expanding the playbook
The universe widened — not for the sake of it, but because the macro reading had become specific enough to justify it. For the first time, individual names alongside the leveraged ETFs — mega-cap tech, bonds, small caps, financials, and an inverse play on China. Different theses, different horizons, running in parallel. It was also the year of serious reading — first real exposure to technical analysis and the idea of combining it with fundamentals. One of those individual names was entered on a textbook chart pattern. Beginner's luck, perhaps. But the kind that teaches something real. Also tried day trading for the first time. Learned a great deal about myself — emotionally, behaviourally — but ultimately concluded it wasn't for me. More activity rarely means better decisions. Closed the year positive regardless, and ahead of 2023.
2025
Conviction, tested
The clearest year yet — and the most concentrated. Almost entirely in a single leveraged semiconductor ETF, a theme that had been building in the macro backdrop for months. The ride wasn't smooth — there were moments that tested the conviction — but held through the volatility and came out the other side. The results were the strongest to date, nearly matching everything from the previous years combined. Not without some noise — a brief detour into crypto-adjacent territory that fortunately ended up marginally positive. But the most important decision of the year happened early: stopping day trading. The focus that returned with it made everything else sharper.

Over these years, the process evolved in a clear direction: learning to manage volatility, to read cycles, to navigate drawdowns, and to avoid reactive decisions. The emotional discipline that is now central to how I operate wasn't given — it was built across easy periods and difficult ones, each teaching something about risk, patience, and the difference between conviction and noise.

The Rules

What I keep
in front of me.

Principles pinned to my trading dashboard — some mine, some collected over time, all earned. They appear in my notes when relevant, not as theory but as lived reminders.

Timing & Patience
01
Wait until the end of the session.
02
Patience is a position.
03
Be patient when it is hard.
04
Enjoy the sidelines.
Reading the Market
05
Trade what you see.
06
Price action, not price level.
07
Ride the trend. Do not fight it.
08
Beware of falling knives.
Conviction & Risk
09
Size should match conviction.
10
To trade is to manage risk.
11
Be the sniper. Have ammunition.
12
Do not try to be a hero.
Execution
13
All that matters is what you do.
14
P&L is only what you sell.
15
A great trade is effortless.
Notes

The Log

Macro · Inflation · 5 Jun 2025
Four Weeks Later, The Ghost Is Back — Scarier.
Containers of popcorn, a vertigo candle on Marvell, Broadcom's miss, and a Black Friday to remember. The ghost never left the closet.
5 Jun 2025 · 5 min read
→
Macro · Semis · 29 May 2025
Gap Up Season In Calmer Waters
Back-to-back gap ups for the second week running, VIX below 16, SOX showing tired legs on Friday — and Broadcom ahead.
29 May 2025 · 4 min read
→
Macro · Geopolitics · 25 May 2025
Against The Ropes
A crucial reversal on Tuesday, semiconductors landing a clean uppercut, and a shortened week with one session that matters more than the other three combined.
25 May 2025 · 4 min read
→
Macro · Inflation · 17 May 2025
The Ghost May Not Go Back Into the Closet.
A week that may have marked an inflection point — not in the post-Liberation Day rebound, but in the near-vertical climb of the S&P and Nasdaq. Two sessions. One structural shift.
17 May 2025 · 4 min read
→
← Notes
Macro · Geopolitics · 25 May 2025

Against the Ropes

25 May 2025 · 4 min read

A crucial reversal in Tuesday's session. The two previous sessions — Friday the 15th, with a massive gap down, and Monday the 18th — had woken the bears from hibernation. But surprisingly, the market found something solid to hold onto and clawed its way out of a deep hole, roughly 45 minutes into the trading session. From there it was show time, with the S&P, Nasdaq and Dow pointing the way back to the den for a pack of bears hungry for open air. Not even a dreadful Michigan Consumer Sentiment reading managed to shake the stoicism of a market determined to hold its ground in bull territory.

A Wildcard That Only Gets More Valuable With Time
Geopolitics continues to prove itself a genuine wildcard, with the upside of peace in the Middle East feeding a thesis of a ceiling on inflation and, by extension, on reference rates. This caught me somewhat off guard, as the inflation ghost had gained considerable strength at the end of the previous week. That said, I'm increasingly convinced that the longer this drags on, the greater the pressure from heavily affected parties to get ships moving through the Strait of Hormuz again. We saw evidence of that during the week, with interventions from players with a great deal to lose from this conflict.

Semis Put On The Gloves
On Tuesday, it was the semiconductors — again — that laced up the gloves, slipped the punch, and landed a clean uppercut. They closed Tuesday in the green, and that served as a launchpad for the rest of the week, reaching rarefied air again by Friday's close. My focus remains on semiconductor leadership, in a week where results from the sector's undisputed leader, NVDA, neither surprised nor compromised. That gives the market room to consolidate or continue the climb — even when the leader isn't the one picking up the tab, while still holding its place at the front of the peloton.

One For The Price Of Four
The shortened week ahead brings renewed hopes around the Hormuz wildcard, but also some caution around Thursday's economic data — a set of indicators tied to the health of the US economy. I'm particularly focused on Core PCE, GDP and Personal Income. It may be wishful thinking, but I keep asking myself whether — and when — the data will start to reflect the weakening of purchasing power and broader credit deterioration.

Have a great trading week — and keep your cameras on.
#markets #macroeconomics #investing
← Notas
Macro · Geopolítica · 25 Maio 2025

Contra as Cordas

25 Maio 2025 · 4 min de leitura

Reviravolta crucial na sessão de terça-feira. As duas sessões anteriores — sexta-feira dia 15, com um gap down tremendo, e segunda-feira dia 18 — tinham acordado os bears da sua hibernação. Mas surpreendentemente, o mercado agarrou-se a algo de bem sólido para sair literalmente de um belo buraco, corridos cerca de 45 minutos da sessão de trading. Daí para a frente foi show time, com os três principais índices — S&P, Nasdaq e Dow — a indicar o caminho de regresso à toca de uns bears sedentos de ar livre. Nem mesmo um Michigan Consumer Sentiment para lá de horrendo mexeu na impassibilidade de um mercado que se agarra ao que pode para se manter em território bull.

Um Wildcard Quanto Mais "Velho", Mais Valioso
A geopolítica continua a mostrar-se como um verdadeiro wildcard, com o upside de paz no Médio Oriente a alimentar uma tese de ceiling na inflação e nas taxas de referência. Isto acabou por me surpreender, pois o fantasma da inflação tinha ganho força considerável no final da semana anterior. No entanto, tenho convicção de que quanto mais tempo passa, maiores serão as pressões de vários players para que os barcos voltem a passar no cada vez mais famoso Estreito de Ormuz. Tivemos prova disso durante a semana, com a pressão de partes altamente prejudicadas por este conflito.

As Luvas dos Semis
Na terça-feira, quem calçou as luvas — com uma esquiva digna de cinema — e soltou um belo upper cut foram mais uma vez os semicondutores. Fecharam a sessão de terça no verde, e isso serviu de catapulta para o resto da semana, com os semis a ir buscar máximos históricos na sessão de sexta-feira dia 22. O meu foco continua numa liderança de semicondutores, numa semana em que o seu líder incontestável, a NVDA, não surpreendeu nem comprometeu. Isso dá margem ao mercado para continuar a trepar mesmo quando o líder não assume as despesas da subida — sem no entanto descolar da frente do pelotão.

One For The Price Of Four
A semana em formato reduzido que começa traz redobradas esperanças do wildcard de Ormuz, mas também bastantes cautelas com os dados económicos de quinta-feira — uma bateria de indicadores ligados à saúde da economia americana. Estou principalmente interessado no Core PCE, no GDP e no personal income. Pode ser um pouco de wishful thinking, mas continuo a perguntar-me quando — ou se — vamos chegar a ver dados preocupantes ligados ao enfraquecimento do poder de compra e à deterioração do crédito em geral.

Boa semana de trading — e câmaras bem ligadas.
#mercados #macroeconomia #investimento
← Notes
Macro · Inflation · 17 May 2025

The ghost may not go back into the closet.

17 May 2025 · 4 min read

A week that may have marked an inflection point — not necessarily in the upward trajectory since the post-Liberation Day rebound, but above all in the near-vertical climb of the indices most associated with growth: the S&P and the Nasdaq.

Structural risk vs. geopolitical noise.
Having now witnessed two sessions — Tuesday and Friday — of sharper reactions to the threat of a higher-for-longer rate environment, driven by not only stickier but also higher-than-expected inflation data, what's interesting is that the market may have found here a far more structural reason to make a u-turn than anything related to the US-Iran conflict. With geopolitical risk, wishful thinking comes easily. With inflation risk, it doesn't — the ghost doesn't necessarily go back into the closet because of a few tweets.

What the tape said.
The "good feeling" that Tuesday's price action gave us — a solid rebound off the session lows — didn't replicate on Friday. There was a recovery attempt mid-session, but the close simply didn't hold, and didn't try to. Sectors that had climbed almost vertically, semiconductors chief among them, were among the most penalised in both sessions.

What to watch next week.
Next week should give us valuable clues about whether sentiment can hold — or will yield — to the shadow called inflation. Wednesday, the world's most valuable company reports earnings. The fanfare around this quarterly event isn't what it used to be, but the current momentum around semiconductors could make it a catalyst, particularly if the over-deliver trend that peers have shown in recent weeks continues. Elsewhere on the calendar: initial jobless claims and housing starts on Thursday, and the University of Michigan consumer sentiment to close the week — notable but not decisive, in my view.

Have a great trading week — and keep your cameras on.
#markets #macroeconomics #investing
← Notas
Macro · Inflação · 17 Maio 2025

O fantasma pode não voltar para o armário.

17 Maio 2025 · 4 min de leitura

Uma semana que pode ter marcado um ponto de inflexão — não necessariamente na trajectória ascendente desde o rebound pós-Liberation Day, mas sobretudo na escalada quase vertical dos índices mais conotados com growth: o S&P e o Nasdaq.

Risco estrutural vs. ruído geopolítico.
Tendo agora assistido a duas sessões — terça e sexta-feira — de reacções mais violentas à ameaça de um ambiente de taxas mais elevadas por mais tempo, impulsionadas por dados de inflação não só mais persistentes mas também acima do esperado, o que é interessante observar é que o mercado pode ter encontrado aqui uma razão bem mais estrutural para inverter a trajectória do que qualquer coisa relacionada com o conflito EUA-Irão. Com risco geopolítico, o wishful thinking vem facilmente. Com risco de inflação, não — o fantasma não volta necessariamente para o armário por causa de alguns tweets.

O que a tape disse.
A "boa sensação" que a price action de terça-feira nos deu — um rebound sólido dos mínimos da sessão — não se replicou na sexta. Houve uma tentativa de recuperação a meio da sessão, mas o fecho simplesmente não conseguiu, e nem quis, segurar. Os sectores com escalada quase vertical, com os semicondutores à cabeça, foram dos mais penalizados nestas duas sessões.

O que observar na próxima semana.
A próxima semana deve deixar-nos pistas valiosas sobre se o sentimento consegue aguentar — ou ceder — à sombra chamada inflação. Na quarta-feira, a empresa mais valiosa do mundo apresenta resultados. A fanfarra em torno deste evento trimestral já não é o que era, mas o momentum actual em torno dos semicondutores pode torná-lo num catalisador, caso se mantenha a tendência de over-deliver que os seus peers apresentaram nas semanas anteriores. No calendário: initial jobless claims e housing starts na quinta-feira, e a fechar a semana o Michigan consumer sentiment — relevante, mas não decisivo, na minha opinião.

Boa semana de trading — e mantenham as câmaras ligadas.
#mercados #macroeconomia #investimento
← Notes
Macro · Semis · 29 May 2025

Gap Up Season In Calmer Waters

29 May 2025 · 4 min read

Back-to-back gap ups across the major indices for the second week running. This reveals the strength of the current tide — and it came with a slightly narrower range than the previous week in the S&P and Nasdaq, and a much more significant volatility compression in the Russell. VIX dropped below 16 on Thursday, a level not seen in four months. This more structural tailwind was accompanied by a 9% weekly drop in WTI and a cooling of the 10-year rate. In the tweetosphere, winds change rapidly — but I'm of the opinion that the 60-day truce will hold. For now.

Resiliency Test Passed
Other than Thursday — where the truce deal propelled the market into a single-direction lane — the other three sessions showed a solid capacity to absorb selling pressure in the first quarter of each session. On three separate occasions, the shock absorbers worked well and the bulls took it to the finish line. This is what someone who is long wants to see: pressure absorption and resilience. But it doesn't end there — you also want good catalysts to materialise in the tape.

Follow The Upgrades
And that is exactly what happened this week. Analyst calls on two major semiconductor names injected strong doses of euphoria — as if you really need any in this sector these days. Micron surged 20% on Tuesday, courtesy of a UBS price target upgrade, and ARM benefitted from a Mizuho upgrade on Thursday. If that wasn't enough, the AI-adjacent play delivered astonishing fireworks on Friday, with Dell skyrocketing more than 32% after reporting a very strong quarter driven by AI server demand.

Tired Legs
Among all the resilience, upgrades and rosy outlooks, I noticed some fatigue in the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index on Friday — it simply didn't have the legs to participate in the broad daily bounce seen across the indices. Worth keeping an eye on. That said, the SOX still finished the week up over 5%, essentially repeating the previous week's feat.

More Popcorn
Big week ahead for semis, with Broadcom reporting on Wednesday. Economic data every day except Thursday — I'll be focused on Job Openings on Tuesday, and Unemployment and Payrolls to close out the week.

Have a great trading week — and keep your cameras on.
#markets #macroeconomics #investing
← Notas
Macro · Semis · 29 Maio 2025

Época de Gap Ups em Águas Mais Calmas

29 Maio 2025 · 4 min de leitura

Gap ups consecutivos nos principais índices pela segunda semana seguida. Isto revela a força da maré actual — e veio acompanhado de uma amplitude ligeiramente mais estreita do que na semana anterior no S&P e no Nasdaq, e de uma compressão de volatilidade muito mais significativa no Russell. O VIX caiu abaixo de 16 na quinta-feira, um nível não visto há quatro meses. Este tailwind mais estrutural foi acompanhado por uma queda de 9% semanal no WTI e por um arrefecimento da taxa a 10 anos. Na tweetosfera os ventos mudam rapidamente — mas estou convicto de que a trégua de 60 dias vai aguentar. Por agora.

Teste de Resiliência: Aprovado
À excepção de quinta-feira — onde o acordo de trégua empurrou o mercado numa única direcção — as outras três sessões mostraram uma sólida capacidade de absorver pressão vendedora no primeiro quarto de cada sessão. Em três ocasiões distintas, os amortecedores funcionaram bem e os bulls levaram-no até à linha de chegada. É isto que quem está long quer ver: absorção de pressão e resiliência. Mas não fica por aqui — é preciso que bons catalisadores se materializem na tape.

Segue os Upgrades
E foi exactamente isso que aconteceu esta semana. As chamadas de analistas sobre dois grandes nomes dos semicondutores injectaram doses fortes de euforia — como se precisassem de mais alguma neste sector nestes dias. A Micron disparou 20% na terça-feira, cortesia de uma revisão de preço-alvo da UBS, e a ARM beneficiou de um upgrade da Mizuho na quinta. Se não chegasse, o AI-adjacent play entregou fogo de artifício impressionante na sexta, com a Dell a disparar mais de 32% após um trimestre muito forte impulsionado pela procura de servidores de IA.

Pernas Cansadas
No meio de toda a resiliência, upgrades e perspectivas animadoras, notei alguma fadiga no Philadelphia Semiconductor Index na sexta-feira — simplesmente não teve pernas para participar no bounce generalizado visto nos índices. Vale a pena acompanhar. Dito isto, o SOX fechou a semana com ganhos superiores a 5%, essencialmente repetindo o feito da semana anterior.

Mais Pipocas
Semana importante para os semis, com a Broadcom a reportar na quarta-feira. Dados económicos todos os dias excepto quinta — vou estar focado nas Job Openings de terça e no Desemprego e Payrolls para fechar a semana.

Boa semana de trading — e câmaras bem ligadas.
#mercados #macroeconomia #investimento
← Notes
Macro · Inflation · 5 Jun 2025

Four Weeks Later, The Ghost Is Back — Scarier.

5 Jun 2025 · 5 min read

"The market may have found here a far more structural reason to make a u-turn."
"The ghost doesn't necessarily go back into the closet because of a few tweets."
— 3xcapitalfund.com, 17 May 2025

Last week we asked for more popcorn. It looks like it got delivered in containers — they ran out of buckets.

After all that recent effort to climb to the peak, we could not enjoy the views from up high for very long. A very busy week where economic data and corporate earnings made it to the horror movies category, delivered in style in back-to-back episodes. Broadcom's AI coating got peeled off by unforgiving investors, and Friday's employment data blew a gigantic hole in the market. One thing is for sure: investors' memory tends to be much less effective than the DRAM in all our tech devices.

Learned a New Word (and New Dynamics)
Taipei was the genesis of a very solid semi performance in the first two sessions of the week, which spread to different corners of the tech universe. On Monday, at an annual conference named COMPUTEX — yes, this is the new word — Jensen Huang announced NVIDIA's foray into the AI in-house segment, with new ammunition. On Tuesday, the same actor propelled Marvell to a staggering 32% daily pop — what I coined a vertigo candle.

ARM was up on increased royalties from incremental NVIDIA sales in the PC market segment. And it was very interesting to watch the opposite reaction from AMD, Intel and Qualcomm — big competitors and legacy players in this space.

Stairs Up, Elevator Down
Price action from the majors proved resilient in the first half of the week, trying to dismiss increased geopolitical uncertainty and hotter ISM reads — services and manufacturing alike. But after Broadcom's earnings, the tech space started to question whether the rarified air they had all been climbing through was actually breathable — and it turns out, arguably, it was not.

Good News Are Bad (Horrible) News. Again.
I was encouraged to see the Nasdaq and the S&P fight back a pretty adversarial tape on Thursday, anchored mainly in Broadcom indigestion. But Friday brought the ghost back from the closet like it had never been hiding. A Black Friday to remember for a while — Nasdaq 100 down 4.8%.

Market Memory Will Be Tested
A new batch of inflation numbers this coming Wednesday is where I will spend all my popcorn. Bears might already be salivating over a possible — likely? — further heating of prices, which could prove catastrophic to sustain after this unreal two-month run. Hard to call it an inflection point when the economy keeps churning jobs. But investors sitting on comfortable profit cushions will have little hesitation to press the red key.

Position Update
I exited my position in SOXL on Thursday after the market close.

Despite being very impressed by the way the Nasdaq fought back a pretty damaging post-Broadcom opening, what made me exit was not only the way the Nasdaq and the S&P threw in their towels at the end of the session — but that fatigue started to show immediately in the first minutes of after hours.

Knowing now the avalanche that came down the day after my exit — SOXL dropped 30% — I feel very fortunate to spend this weekend gaining a fresh market perspective.

↗ Rule — Wait for the end of the session.

Have a great trading week — and keep your cameras on.
#markets #macroeconomics #investing
← Notas
Macro · Inflação · 5 Jun 2025

Quatro Semanas Depois, O Fantasma Voltou — Mais Assustador.

5 Jun 2025 · 5 min de leitura

"O mercado pode ter encontrado aqui uma razão bem mais estrutural para inverter a trajectória."
"O fantasma não volta necessariamente para o armário por causa de alguns tweets."
— 3xcapitalfund.com, 17 Maio 2025

Na semana passada pedimos mais pipocas. Parece que chegaram em contentores — ficaram sem baldes.

Depois de todo o esforço recente para chegar ao topo, não conseguimos desfrutar das vistas lá de cima por muito tempo. Uma semana muito intensa onde os dados económicos e os resultados empresariais entraram directamente na categoria dos filmes de terror — entregues em grande estilo, em episódios consecutivos. O revestimento de IA da Broadcom foi arrancado por investidores implacáveis, e os dados de emprego de sexta-feira abriram um buraco gigantesco no mercado. Uma coisa é certa: a memória dos investidores tende a ser muito menos eficaz do que a parte DRAM dos nossos dispositivos tecnológicos.

Aprendi Uma Nova Palavra (e Novas Dinâmicas)
Taipé foi a génese de uma performance muito sólida dos semis nas primeiras duas sessões da semana, que se propagou a diferentes cantos do universo tecnológico. Na segunda-feira, numa conferência anual chamada COMPUTEX — sim, esta é a nova palavra — Jensen Huang anunciou a entrada da NVIDIA no segmento de IA in-house, com nova munição. Na terça-feira, o mesmo actor propulsionou a Marvell para um pop diário de 32% — o que cunhei como uma vertigo candle.

A ARM subiu com o aumento de royalties provenientes das vendas incrementais da NVIDIA no segmento de PC. E foi muito interessante observar a reacção oposta da AMD, Intel e Qualcomm — grandes concorrentes e players legacy neste espaço.

Escadas a Subir, Elevador a Descer
A price action dos principais índices mostrou-se resiliente na primeira metade da semana, tentando ignorar o aumento da incerteza geopolítica e leituras mais quentes dos ISMs — serviços e manufacturing. Mas após os resultados da Broadcom, o espaço tecnológico começou a questionar se o ar rarefeito que todos tinham estado a respirar era realmente respirável — e acontece que, de forma discutível, não era.

Boas Notícias São (Horríveis) Más Notícias. Outra Vez.
Encorajou-me ver o Nasdaq e o S&P lutar contra uma tape bastante adversarial na quinta-feira, ancorada principalmente na indigestão da Broadcom. Mas a sexta-feira trouxe o fantasma de volta do armário como se nunca tivesse estado escondido. Uma Sexta-feira Negra para recordar durante algum tempo — Nasdaq 100 a cair 4.8%.

A Memória do Mercado Vai Ser Testada
Uma nova fornada de dados de inflação na próxima quarta-feira é onde vou gastar todas as minhas pipocas. Os bears podem já estar a salivar com um possível — provável? — aquecimento adicional dos preços, o que pode revelar-se catastrófico para sustentar esta corrida de dois meses. Difícil chamar-lhe ponto de inflexão quando a economia continua a criar empregos. Mas os investidores sentados em almofadas confortáveis de lucros não vão hesitar muito em carregar no botão vermelho.

Actualização de Posição
Saí da minha posição em SOXL na quinta-feira após o fecho do mercado.

Apesar de ter ficado muito impressionado com a forma como o Nasdaq combateu uma abertura bastante danificada pós-Broadcom, o que me fez sair foi não só a forma como o Nasdaq e o S&P atiraram a toalha ao chão no final da sessão — mas a fadiga que começou a mostrar-se imediatamente nos primeiros minutos do after hours.

Sabendo agora da avalanche que veio no dia a seguir à minha saída — o SOXL caiu 30% — sinto-me muito afortunado por passar este fim de semana a ganhar uma perspectiva fresca sobre o mercado.

↗ Regra — Espera pelo final da sessão.

Boa semana de trading — e câmaras bem ligadas.
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