Price action.
Sector context.
No noise.
There's a difference between watching prices move and reading what they're saying. That distinction took years to be fully appreciated.
A public market journal — written when something is worth saying. What appears here is what I actually use: price action, sector leadership, macro context, narrative, and the behavioural reading of markets under pressure.
What guides this is something harder to formalise: sustained attention to how markets behave — how they absorb news, how they move when they shouldn't, how they refuse to move when everyone expects them to. That, over time, builds a feel — quieter, sharper, earned through repetition.
How decisions are made
Markets rarely reward constant action. Most decisions come from patience, context, and waiting for moments where you have more conviction about what price behaviour is telling you. Sometimes it whispers — but sometimes it screams. Once the subconscious dashboard starts to light up, all you need is the nerve to act. You will always need the nerve.
Reading the tape
Price behaviour reveals more than headlines. The way markets react — or refuse to react — often says more than the event itself. Over time, I've forced myself to focus more on price action than on price level.
Context
Context shapes conviction. Sector leadership, macro conditions, and thematic flows help distinguish temporary noise from structural change. Making sense of this puzzle creates a feeling that is hard to describe — and that is precisely what keeps me engaged.
Trained intuition
Hundreds of hours following cycles, euphorias, panics, and regime shifts — observing how specific assets behave under specific conditions. It is difficult to measure how much that daily exposure improves decision-making, but over time I have come to believe that sustained observation trains perception — and eventually polishes intuition.
Emotional mileage
Markets teach you things about yourself that few other environments can. The deep lows, the fast gains, the emotional swings — over time they leave scars, but also perspective. You learn to stay rational when positions move hard against you, and to remain grounded when everything suddenly works. Earned — from my observation deck.
Price Action
Sector Leadership
Macro Context
Narrative
Behavioural Reading
Thematic Flows
About
The person behind
the observations.
Macro & Thematic Investor · Since 2020
What keeps pulling me deeper into markets is not only the opportunity, but the complexity itself: the different trends that you ride, the traps, the emotional swings, the deep lows, the moments where everything changes in a single session — and the constant challenge of learning to navigate all of it with more clarity, discipline, and humility.
Since 2020, I've been developing a macro-driven approach focused on market behaviour, sector leadership, liquidity cycles, and the relationship between narrative and price action. What matters to me is rarely the headline itself, but how markets absorb it — or refuse to.
The 3X in the name comes from the instruments themselves. Three-times leveraged ETFs gradually became my own asset class — volatile, demanding, emotionally unforgiving at times. They are not instruments for everyone. Liquidity, risk management, and emotional control matter enormously. Over time, however, I realised this was the arena that matched my risk profile. They remain diversified baskets at their core, but with a velocity that demands both hands on the wheel — exactly the way I like it.
Over time, the focus shifted away from constant action and toward sustained observation. A significant part of that evolution came through screen time — including an intense period of day trading that eventually reshaped the way I look at markets. I became less interested in reacting to every move and more interested in staying close to the tape itself: watching how behaviour develops from the open to the close, day after day. Most of the work happens before action is taken.
Markets also teach you things about yourself that few other environments can. The deep lows, the fast gains, the emotional swings — over time they leave scars, but also perspective. You learn to stay rational when positions move hard against you, and to remain grounded when everything suddenly works.
I'm Tiago, based between Vancouver and Lisboa.
This writing is, honestly, also for me — a way to ventilate what I observe, let it settle, and become more precise about what I actually saw versus what I thought I saw.
Nothing here is financial advice. These are personal observations, written to think clearly — not to instruct.
← Notes
Macro · Geopolitics · 25 May 2025
Against the Ropes
25 May 2025 · 4 min read
A crucial reversal in Tuesday's session. The two previous sessions — Friday the 15th, with a massive gap down, and Monday the 18th — had woken the bears from hibernation. But surprisingly, the market found something solid to hold onto and clawed its way out of a deep hole, roughly 45 minutes into the trading session. From there it was show time, with the S&P, Nasdaq and Dow pointing the way back to the den for a pack of bears hungry for open air. Not even a dreadful Michigan Consumer Sentiment reading managed to shake the stoicism of a market determined to hold its ground in bull territory.
A Wildcard That Only Gets More Valuable With Time
Geopolitics continues to prove itself a genuine wildcard, with the upside of peace in the Middle East feeding a thesis of a ceiling on inflation and, by extension, on reference rates. This caught me somewhat off guard, as the inflation ghost had gained considerable strength at the end of the previous week. That said, I'm increasingly convinced that the longer this drags on, the greater the pressure from heavily affected parties to get ships moving through the Strait of Hormuz again. We saw evidence of that during the week, with interventions from players with a great deal to lose from this conflict.
Semis Put On The Gloves
On Tuesday, it was the semiconductors — again — that laced up the gloves, slipped the punch, and landed a clean uppercut. They closed Tuesday in the green, and that served as a launchpad for the rest of the week, reaching rarefied air again by Friday's close. My focus remains on semiconductor leadership, in a week where results from the sector's undisputed leader, NVDA, neither surprised nor compromised. That gives the market room to consolidate or continue the climb — even when the leader isn't the one picking up the tab, while still holding its place at the front of the peloton.
One For The Price Of Four
The shortened week ahead brings renewed hopes around the Hormuz wildcard, but also some caution around Thursday's economic data — a set of indicators tied to the health of the US economy. I'm particularly focused on Core PCE, GDP and Personal Income. It may be wishful thinking, but I keep asking myself whether — and when — the data will start to reflect the weakening of purchasing power and broader credit deterioration.
Have a great trading week — and keep your cameras on.
#markets
#macroeconomics
#investing
← Notas
Macro · Geopolítica · 25 Maio 2025
Contra as Cordas
25 Maio 2025 · 4 min de leitura
Reviravolta crucial na sessão de terça-feira. As duas sessões anteriores — sexta-feira dia 15, com um gap down tremendo, e segunda-feira dia 18 — tinham acordado os bears da sua hibernação. Mas surpreendentemente, o mercado agarrou-se a algo de bem sólido para sair literalmente de um belo buraco, corridos cerca de 45 minutos da sessão de trading. Daí para a frente foi show time, com os três principais índices — S&P, Nasdaq e Dow — a indicar o caminho de regresso à toca de uns bears sedentos de ar livre. Nem mesmo um Michigan Consumer Sentiment para lá de horrendo mexeu na impassibilidade de um mercado que se agarra ao que pode para se manter em território bull.
Um Wildcard Quanto Mais "Velho", Mais Valioso
A geopolítica continua a mostrar-se como um verdadeiro wildcard, com o upside de paz no Médio Oriente a alimentar uma tese de ceiling na inflação e nas taxas de referência. Isto acabou por me surpreender, pois o fantasma da inflação tinha ganho força considerável no final da semana anterior. No entanto, tenho convicção de que quanto mais tempo passa, maiores serão as pressões de vários players para que os barcos voltem a passar no cada vez mais famoso Estreito de Ormuz. Tivemos prova disso durante a semana, com a pressão de partes altamente prejudicadas por este conflito.
As Luvas dos Semis
Na terça-feira, quem calçou as luvas — com uma esquiva digna de cinema — e soltou um belo upper cut foram mais uma vez os semicondutores. Fecharam a sessão de terça no verde, e isso serviu de catapulta para o resto da semana, com os semis a ir buscar máximos históricos na sessão de sexta-feira dia 22. O meu foco continua numa liderança de semicondutores, numa semana em que o seu líder incontestável, a NVDA, não surpreendeu nem comprometeu. Isso dá margem ao mercado para continuar a trepar mesmo quando o líder não assume as despesas da subida — sem no entanto descolar da frente do pelotão.
One For The Price Of Four
A semana em formato reduzido que começa traz redobradas esperanças do wildcard de Ormuz, mas também bastantes cautelas com os dados económicos de quinta-feira — uma bateria de indicadores ligados à saúde da economia americana. Estou principalmente interessado no Core PCE, no GDP e no personal income. Pode ser um pouco de wishful thinking, mas continuo a perguntar-me quando — ou se — vamos chegar a ver dados preocupantes ligados ao enfraquecimento do poder de compra e à deterioração do crédito em geral.
Boa semana de trading — e câmaras bem ligadas.
#mercados
#macroeconomia
#investimento
← Notes
Macro · Inflation · 17 May 2025
The ghost may not go back into the closet.
17 May 2025 · 4 min read
A week that may have marked an inflection point — not necessarily in the upward trajectory since the post-Liberation Day rebound, but above all in the near-vertical climb of the indices most associated with growth: the S&P and the Nasdaq.
Structural risk vs. geopolitical noise.
Having now witnessed two sessions — Tuesday and Friday — of sharper reactions to the threat of a higher-for-longer rate environment, driven by not only stickier but also higher-than-expected inflation data, what's interesting is that the market may have found here a far more structural reason to make a u-turn than anything related to the US-Iran conflict. With geopolitical risk, wishful thinking comes easily. With inflation risk, it doesn't — the ghost doesn't necessarily go back into the closet because of a few tweets.
What the tape said.
The "good feeling" that Tuesday's price action gave us — a solid rebound off the session lows — didn't replicate on Friday. There was a recovery attempt mid-session, but the close simply didn't hold, and didn't try to. Sectors that had climbed almost vertically, semiconductors chief among them, were among the most penalised in both sessions.
What to watch next week.
Next week should give us valuable clues about whether sentiment can hold — or will yield — to the shadow called inflation. Wednesday, the world's most valuable company reports earnings. The fanfare around this quarterly event isn't what it used to be, but the current momentum around semiconductors could make it a catalyst, particularly if the over-deliver trend that peers have shown in recent weeks continues. Elsewhere on the calendar: initial jobless claims and housing starts on Thursday, and the University of Michigan consumer sentiment to close the week — notable but not decisive, in my view.
Have a great trading week — and keep your cameras on.
#markets
#macroeconomics
#investing
← Notas
Macro · Inflação · 17 Maio 2025
O fantasma pode não voltar para o armário.
17 Maio 2025 · 4 min de leitura
Uma semana que pode ter marcado um ponto de inflexão — não necessariamente na trajectória ascendente desde o rebound pós-Liberation Day, mas sobretudo na escalada quase vertical dos índices mais conotados com growth: o S&P e o Nasdaq.
Risco estrutural vs. ruído geopolítico.
Tendo agora assistido a duas sessões — terça e sexta-feira — de reacções mais violentas à ameaça de um ambiente de taxas mais elevadas por mais tempo, impulsionadas por dados de inflação não só mais persistentes mas também acima do esperado, o que é interessante observar é que o mercado pode ter encontrado aqui uma razão bem mais estrutural para inverter a trajectória do que qualquer coisa relacionada com o conflito EUA-Irão. Com risco geopolítico, o wishful thinking vem facilmente. Com risco de inflação, não — o fantasma não volta necessariamente para o armário por causa de alguns tweets.
O que a tape disse.
A "boa sensação" que a price action de terça-feira nos deu — um rebound sólido dos mínimos da sessão — não se replicou na sexta. Houve uma tentativa de recuperação a meio da sessão, mas o fecho simplesmente não conseguiu, e nem quis, segurar. Os sectores com escalada quase vertical, com os semicondutores à cabeça, foram dos mais penalizados nestas duas sessões.
O que observar na próxima semana.
A próxima semana deve deixar-nos pistas valiosas sobre se o sentimento consegue aguentar — ou ceder — à sombra chamada inflação. Na quarta-feira, a empresa mais valiosa do mundo apresenta resultados. A fanfarra em torno deste evento trimestral já não é o que era, mas o momentum actual em torno dos semicondutores pode torná-lo num catalisador, caso se mantenha a tendência de over-deliver que os seus peers apresentaram nas semanas anteriores. No calendário: initial jobless claims e housing starts na quinta-feira, e a fechar a semana o Michigan consumer sentiment — relevante, mas não decisivo, na minha opinião.
Boa semana de trading — e mantenham as câmaras ligadas.
#mercados
#macroeconomia
#investimento